Cold hard maths
Common sense

What next?

For the third day in a row, there are no new COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong.  Things already seem to be returning to normal, with more people out and about at the weekend.  The rules on restaurants capacity have been removed, but tables are still supposed to be 1.5 metres apart (or with a physical barrier to separate people).  Bars are still closed.

According to the FT, most government services will resume next week and outdoor sports facilities and libraries will reopen.  Ah, here it is in the HKFP: Coronavirus: Majority of Hong Kong gov’t staff to return to work next Monday

This is a rather good summary (from David Webb):

COVID-19: where do we go from here?

Hong Kong is now at or close to zero local transmissions. The latest known local transmission was probably case #1026 inside HK Airport, a 47 year-old Virgin Atlantic ground crew member, probably infected by an arriving passenger from the daily UK flight. She recalls coughing on 6-Apr but she didn't visit a doctor until 14-Apr and was confirmed on 19-Apr. There were 3 cases on the Virgin flight on 6-Apr but then none until 12-Apr, so given an incubation period, it is more likely that she was infected on 12-Apr. Not all coughs are COVID-related.

Outside of the airport, the last known transmission was case #1008 reported on 13-Apr, when he was asymptomatic but already in government quarantine, because he is the 66 year-old father of case #884, who had symptoms on 30-Mar and was confirmed on 5-Apr. That means his father caught the virus on or before 5-Apr and was then placed in quarantine.

Webb thinks that people from Mainland China will be allowed into Hong Kong before long.  This afternoon it has been announced that the current restrictions will continue till 7 June, but “cross-border teachers and students, and people whose business activities are ‘beneficial to Hong Kong’ will be allowed to enter Hong Kong without having to undergo 14 days of quarantine.”  [RTHK]

This all sounds quite positive, but it’s not long ago that Hong Kong and Singapore were being used as examples of how to handle COVID-19.  Unfortunately Singapore now has 15,000 cases, mainly migrant workers living in dormitories. 

Guardian front page

And now a rant…

My problem with much of the reporting on COVID-19 is that it can be difficult to see the "big picture".  For example, the front page of The Guardian (right) seems to have been designed by someone who wants to draw attention to 14 different blue-coloured panels (all with COVID-19 stories).  Can they all be really important?


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